Home Prices in 2026: Why a Quiet Rebound Is More Likely Than a Stall

Here’s my call for 2026:

Home prices are more likely to rise around 4% nationally than sit flat.

Not because the market suddenly gets “hot,” but because the pressure that’s been building for nearly two years finally releases.

Start With What’s Already Happened

For roughly 18 months, the housing market has been frozen in place:

• Sales volume down sharply

• Buyers sidelined by rates

• Sellers refusing to give up low-rate mortgages

• Prices mostly flat in many markets, modestly up in others

That matters—because markets don’t stay compressed forever.

The Pressure Point: Mortgage Rates

The biggest story heading into 2026 isn’t prices. It’s rates finally easing.

Even a modest decline—say from the high-6s into the low-6s or upper-5s—does three things immediately:

1. Improves affordability at the margin

2. Pulls buyers off the sidelines

3. Signals “certainty,” not cheap money

Housing doesn’t need 3% mortgages.

It needs people to believe the worst is behind them.

Pent-Up Demand Is Real (and Underestimated)

We’ve delayed:

• First-time buyers

• Move-up buyers

• Downsizers

• Investors waiting for clarity

That’s millions of households making the same decision: wait.

When rates drift down—even unevenly—that waiting ends in stages. Not a surge. A release.

And when demand reappears in a market with still-tight inventory, prices respond.

Why 4% Is a Reasonable 2026 Number

A 4% appreciation rate isn’t aggressive. Historically, it’s close to normal.

It reflects:

• Catch-up after a long flat period

• Inflation still running above the Fed’s long-term target

• No meaningful increase in distressed sales

• Builders unable (or unwilling) to flood the market with supply

This won’t feel like a boom. But it won’t feel flat either.

The National Number Will Still Lie

Even at ~4% nationally, outcomes will vary widely:

• Some markets outperform meaningfully

• Some barely move

• Some slip quietly, especially where affordability and insurance collide

But nationally? The math favors modest appreciation, not stagnation.

What This Means for Investors

A 4% year changes the psychology.

You don’t buy hoping for appreciation—but when it shows up:

• Margins widen

• Exits get easier

• Mistakes get forgiven (slightly)

The smart move in 2026 is buying deals that work without appreciation, knowing that modest appreciation is likely riding along.

Bottom Line

We’ve already done the waiting.

After 18 months of compression, easing rates don’t need to ignite a frenzy—just motion. And motion in a supply-constrained market tends to push prices higher.

My bet for 2026: closer to 4% than flat.

A Personal Note from Roger:

I rarely open my calendar for one-on-one sessions.
As we head into year-end, I’m opening 10 private strategy calls for real estate professionals and small business owners who want clarity going into 2026.

Click here for more information and to schedule